Tuberculosis Prevalence Trends from a Predictive Modelling Study — 10 High-Burden Countries, 1980–2035

   A recent study provides a sobering forecast for the fight against tuberculosis (TB) in the 10 countries with the highest burden of the disease. Contrary to the World Health Organization’s ambitious goals, the study shows that TB cases are likely to increase from 2023 to 2035, particularly in India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Using various predictive models on WHO and World Bank data, the research indicates that only China may see a consistent decrease in TB incidence. These models take into account factors like drug-resistant TB strains, TB/HIV co-infections, demographics, and the disruptive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study underscores the importance of developing targeted TB interventions, leaning on successful strategies from regions like Russia, and fostering international collaboration. It also calls for reassessments considering the pandemic’s impact on public health. This work — notably employing data from the WHO Global Tuberculosis Programme and the World Bank — reveals the pressing need for stronger measures to meet global TB eradication goals, emphasizing the urgency for India and China to ramp up efforts in TB management.

   For more information: https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi/10.46234/ccdcw2024.045

Molecular Epidemiological Study of a Human Brucellosis Outbreak — Weihai City, Shandong Province, China, 2022

   A recent study details an outbreak of human brucellosis in Weihai, Shandong Province, China, between June 12 and June 30, 2022, tracing its emergence to the transportation of live animals from neighboring regions. Despite a low incidence rate in Weihai from 2017 to 2022, this outbreak involved six confirmed cases linked to livestock farming and consumption of infected sheep products. Advanced genomic techniques, such as MLVA and whole-genome SNP analyses, were employed to identify the outbreak strains and their origins, revealing a connection to livestock traded across provincial borders. This research underscores the complex challenges in tracking brucellosis sources due to the extensive movement of livestock and the diverse channels of trade. It highlights the effectiveness of Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) and inter-regional collaboration in improving disease surveillance and control efforts. The findings suggest a resurgence of brucellosis in Shandong Province, attributed to the expansion of the livestock breeding industry and increased interprovincial livestock transport. This study emphasizes the need for advanced molecular typing and WGS in identifying and controlling brucellosis outbreaks, pointing towards the potential of these technologies to refine epidemiological investigations and mitigate the spread of this zoonotic disease.

   For more information: https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi/10.46234/ccdcw2024.046

Epidemiological Characteristics of Human Parainfluenza Viruses Infections — China, 2019–2023

   An exhaustive surveillance study conducted in China from 2019 to 2023 has shed light on the epidemiology of human parainfluenza viruses (HPIVs), significant respiratory pathogens particularly impacting children under five. Spanning 11 sentinel hospitals, the investigation assessed factors like seasonal trends, geographical distribution, and demographic data in relation to HPIVs infections. Findings have disclosed an overall HPIVs detection rate of 6.15% in acute respiratory infections (ARIs) and 5.40% in severe acute respiratory infections (SARIs). Among the four known HPIV serotypes, HPIV3 and HPIV1 were most prevalent, each displaying distinct seasonal patterns affected by non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) due to COVID-19. The prevalence of HPIVs varied by region, with HPIV3 more common in southern China, and HPIV2 and HPIV4 higher in northern provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs). Co-infections were frequent, with variations in rates and types of co-infecting viruses over the years. This comprehensive analysis draws attention to the nuanced epidemiological behavior of HPIVs and the influence of public health measures, offering a foundation for future management strategies for HPIVs and other respiratory viruses in light of the COVID-19 pandemic.

   For more information: https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi/10.46234/ccdcw2024.047

An Outbreak of Serogroup Y Meningococcal Meningitis in a Private Secondary Vocational School — Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, China, 2023

   In a comprehensive investigation led by the Guangdong CDC following a severe case of meningococcal meningitis in Zengcheng District, Guangzhou, researchers identified an outbreak involving one confirmed case of serogroup Y meningococcal meningitis and 24 Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) carriers among close contacts. The confirmed case, a 16-year-old student from a private vocational school, exhibited symptoms typical of fulminant meningococcal meningitis, leading to significant morbidity. Despite the school's closed boarding management, inadequate ventilation in classrooms and dormitories may have contributed to the transmission. No new cases were identified beyond the initial report, but the investigation revealed a high carrier rate among close contacts, particularly in shared educational and living spaces, underlining the importance of such environments in transmission dynamics. The outbreak prompted immediate and effective outbreak control measures, including antibiotic prophylaxis and emergency vaccination, which prevented further cases. This incident highlights the critical role of timely epidemiological intervention and the need for enhanced awareness and vaccination coverage against meningococcal meningitis in China, especially for serogroups not included in the National Immunization Program.

   For more information: https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi/10.46234/ccdcw2024.048