Notified Vector-Borne Diseases — China, 2005–2024

Qiyong Liu^1,2,#; Haoqiang Ji^1,2; Meng Shang^1,2

1. National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China;

2. Department of Vector Control, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan City, Shandong Province, China.

^# Corresponding authors: Qiyong Liu, liuqiyong@icdc.cn.

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) represent a significant category of infectious diseases. Analyzing the epidemiological characteristics of VBDs in China, including their temporal and spatial distributions, provides essential evidence for developing effective prevention and control strategies. Data for 14 types of VBDs from 2005 to 2024 were obtained from the China National Infectious Disease Surveillance System. These diseases were categorized as mosquito-borne, tick-borne, rodent-borne, and other VBDs. Using the Mann-Kendall trend test, we analyzed demographic characteristics, spatial distribution, temporal trends, and seasonal patterns of notified cases over the 20-year period. From 2005 to 2024, a total of 1,129,736 VBD cases were reported in China. Scrub typhus (28.17%), malaria (20.8%), hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS, 18.4%), dengue (12.61%), and schistosomiasis (8.42%) collectively accounted for 88.4% of all cases. Over a 20-year period, mosquito-borne and rodent-borne diseases indicated significant declining trends (P<0.05), while tick-borne and other VBDs demonstrated significant increasing trends (P<0.05). Dengue, scrub typhus, and severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) expanded geographically, with annual increases of 10.89, 12.37, and 7.07 reporting cities, respectively. Although diseases such as plague, malaria, and schistosomiasis have been effectively controlled, the incidence of scrub typhus, dengue, HFRS, and SFTS remains high in recent years. The burden of VBDs in China remains substantial, with an increasing trend observed over the past 5 years. The rising incidence and geographic expansion of scrub typhus, dengue, and SFTS warrant particular attention from public health authorities.

媒介生物传染病流行特征 — 中国，2005–2024年

刘起勇^1,2,#；冀好强^1,2；尚猛^1,2

1.传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室，传染病预防控制所，中国疾病预防控制中心，北京，中国;

2. 媒介生物控制学系，公共卫生学院，齐鲁医学院，山东大学，济南市，山东省，中国。

^# 通信作者：刘起勇，liuqiyong@icdc.cn。

媒介生物传染病是一类重要的传染病，分析2005-2024年中国媒介生物传染病时空分布等流行特征，可为制定其预防控制措施提供依据。2005-2024年中国14种媒介生物传染病的病例数据来源于国家传染病监测系统，本研究将其分为蚊传疾病、蜱传疾病、鼠传疾病以及其它媒介生物传播疾病，描述媒介生物传染病病例的空间分布、时间趋势、季节特征以及人群特征，媒介生物传染病的时间趋势采用Mann-Kendall检验。2005-2024年中国共报告1,129,736例媒介生物传染病病例，主要分布在胡焕庸线以东地区。恙虫病(28.17%)、疟疾(20.8%)、肾综合征出血热(18.4%)、登革热(12.61%)、血吸虫病(8.42%)共占所有病例的88.4%。20年间媒介生物传染病呈波动变化趋势(P>0.05)，蚊传疾病与鼠传疾病呈下降趋势(P<0.05)，而蜱传疾病和其他媒传疾病呈上升趋势(P<0.05)。尽管鼠疫、疟疾、血吸虫病得到了有效控制，但近年来恙虫病、登革热、肾综合征出血热以及发热伴血小板减少综合征仍处于较高的流行水平。中国媒介生物传染病仍处于较高水平，近年来呈增长趋势，恙虫病、登革热、发热伴血小板减少综合征发病率上升和地理分布扩增尤为突出。应积极落实媒介生物综合治理及媒介生物可持续控制等策略以降低媒介生物传染病的疾病负担。

For more information: https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi/10.46234/ccdcw2025.162

A Comprehensive Analysis and Forecast of Rabies Epidemic and Elimination Challenges — China, 2005–2023

Na Zhang¹; Xiaonuo Xu¹; Minghui Zhang¹; Yuan Xie¹; Pengcheng Yu¹; Shuqing Liu¹; Qian Liu¹; Xiaoyan Tao^1,#; Wuyang Zhu^1,#

1. National Key Laboratory of Medical Viruses and Viral Diseases, National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.

^# Corresponding author: Xiaoyan Tao, taoxy@ivdc.chinacdc.cn; Wuyang Zhu, zhuwy@ivdc.chinacdc.cn.

The 2030 global target for eliminating dog-mediated human rabies, jointly proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and other international organizations, presents significant challenges for China. This study analyzes epidemiological trends (2005–2023), forecasts future case numbers, and compares China's progress with elimination strategies from the United States, Japan, and Brazil to optimize national rabies prevention and control approaches. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of human rabies cases across China. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was employed to forecast cases for the next two years, with the optimal model selected based on indicators, including the Akaike information criterion. 24,566 human rabies cases were reported in China from 2005 to 2023. Over these 19 years, rabies prevalence shifted from southeastern to northwestern regions. Provincial trends varied significantly: 14 provincial-level administrative divisions, including Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai, achieved zero cases; Shandong, Shanxi, and Chongqing experienced a resurgence; Guangxi, Henan, Hunan, and Anhui maintained high endemic levels; while other regions showed a steady decline. The SARIMA (0,1,2)(2,1,1)₁₂ model forecasts 65 cases by 2025, substantially exceeding international case levels during comparable elimination phases. To achieve the 2030 rabies elimination goal in China, implementing a comprehensive large-scale dog vaccination strategy is essential within the remaining timeframe.

狂犬病疫情综合分析与消除挑战预测研究 — 中国，2005–2023年

张娜¹；许晓诺¹；张明慧¹；谢渊¹；于鹏程¹；刘淑清¹；刘茜¹；陶晓燕^1,#；朱武洋^1,#

1. 国家卫健委医学病毒和病毒病重点实验室，病毒病预防控制所狂犬病室，中国疾病预防控制中心，北京，中国。

^# 通信作者: 陶晓燕：taoxy@ivdc.chinacdc.cn；朱武洋：zhuwy@ivdc.chinacdc.cn。

世界卫生组织等提出"2030年消除犬传人狂犬病"全球战略目标，我国的推进过程面临多重挑战。本研究基于2005–2023年的监测数据，总结疫情流行特征；同时构建SARIMA模型预测发病趋势，与美日巴的消除路径进行对比，以优化我国狂犬病防控策略。采用描述性统计方法分析2005–2023年狂犬病时空分布。以SARIMA模型预测2024–2025年的发病趋势，通过AIC等参数选择最佳模型。2005–2023年，全国累计报告病例24,566例。疫情从东南向西北扩散，京、津、沪等14个省区实现零病例报告，鲁、晋、渝疫情反弹，桂、豫、湘、皖持续高发，其他区域稳定下降。SARIMA(0,1,2)(2,1,1)₁₂模型预测2025年病例数将降至65例，远高于国际同期消除水平。我国需强化大规模犬只免疫策略，以推动实现2030狂犬病消除目标。

For more information: https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi/10.46234/ccdcw2025.163

Mapping the Global Antigenic Evolution of Human Influenza A/H3N2 Neuraminidase Based on a Machine Learning Model — 1968–2024

Jingru Feng^1,&; Rui Shi^2,&; Huixin Zhou^3,&; Shijie Wu^1,2; Junyu Hu^1,2; Taijiao Jiang^4,5,6; Wenjie Han^2,#;  Xiangjun Du^1,3,7,#

1. School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, China

2. School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, China

3. Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Pathogenic Microbes & Biosafety, Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, China.

4. Guangzhou National Laboratory, Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, China

5. State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, The Key Laboratory of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies Center, the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, China

6. Suzhou Institute of Systems Medicine, Suzhou City, Jiangsu Province, China.

7. Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Control, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, China.

^& Joint first authors.

^# Corresponding author: Wenjie Han, hanwj7@mail2.sysu.edu.cn; Xiangjun Du, duxj9@mail.sysu.edu.cn .

Human influenza A/H3N2 imposes a substantial global disease burden. Beyond hemagglutinin (HA), neuraminidase (NA) also plays a critical role in the antigenic evolution of influenza viruses. However, a comprehensive understanding of NA antigenic evolution remains lacking. NA inhibition (NAI) data were collected and structural epitopes for A/H3N2 NA were identified. A machine learning model was developed to accurately predict antigenic relationships by integrating four feature groups: epitopes, physicochemical properties, N-glycosylation, and catalytic sites. An antigenic correlation network (ACNet) was constructed and antigenic clusters were identified using the Markov clustering algorithm. The best random forest model (PREDEC-N2) achieved an accuracy of 0.904 in cross-validation and 0.867 in independent testing. Eight main antigenic clusters were identified on the ACNet. Spatiotemporal analysis revealed the continuous replacement and rapid global spread of new antigenic clusters for human influenza A/H3N2 NA. This study developed a timely and accurate computational model to map the antigenic landscape of A/H3N2 NA, revealing both its relative antigenic conservation and continuous evolution. These insights provide valuable guidance for improved antigenic surveillance, vaccine recommendations, and prevention and control strategies for human influenza viruses.

基于机器学习模型绘制人类甲型H3N2流感病毒神经氨酸酶的抗原演化图谱 — 1968–2024 年

冯镜儒^1,&，石睿^2,&，周辉鑫^3,&，吴世杰^1,2，胡俊宇^1,2，蒋太交^4,5,6, 韩文杰^2,#,  杜向军^1,3,7,#

1. 公共卫生学院（深圳），中山大学，广州市，广东省，中国；

2. 公共卫生学院（深圳），中山大学深圳校区，深圳市，广东省，中国；

3. 病原微生物与生物安全重点实验室，中山大学深圳校区，深圳市，广东省，中国；

4. 广州国家实验室，广州市，广东省，中国；

5. 呼吸疾病国家重点实验室、高等交叉学科研究中心重点实验室，广州医科大学附属第一医院，广州市，广东省，中国；

6. 苏州系统生物医学研究所，苏州市，江苏省，中国；

7. 热带病防治研究教育部重点实验室，中山大学，广州市，广东省，中国。

^& 共同第一作者。

^# 通信作者：韩文杰，hanwj7@mail2.sysu.edu.cn；杜向军，duxj9@mail.sysu.edu.cn。

人类甲型H3N2流感给全球带来了巨大的疾病负担。除了血凝素（HA）之外，神经氨酸酶（NA）在流感病毒的抗原进化过程中也发挥着重要作用。然而，我们对 NA 的抗原进化仍缺乏全面的了解。我们收集了神经氨酸酶抑制实验（NAI）数据，并确定了H3N2的NA构象表位。通过整合表位、理化性质、N-糖基化和催化位点这四个特征组，开发了一个机器学习模型来准确预测不同毒株的抗原关系。通过马尔科夫聚类算法构建了抗原关系网络（ACNet）并确定了抗原簇。最佳的预测预测模型是随机森林模型（PREDEC-N2），交叉验证准确率为 0.904，独立测试集准确率为 0.867。在 ACNet 上发现了八个主要的抗原簇。时空分析表明，人感染甲型 H3N2 NA 流感的新抗原簇不断更替并在全球迅速扩散。这项研究建立了一个准确快速的计算模型，绘制了H3N2 NA的抗原图谱，揭示了其抗原的相对保守性和持续进化的存在。这些见解可以为改进人类流感病毒的抗原监测、疫苗推荐和防控策略提供了有价值的指导。

For more information: https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi/10.46234/ccdcw2025.164

Clade Ib Mpox Virus: How Can We Respond?

Lin Ai^1,&; Xinyi Cui^2,&; Yanqiu Zhou^1,#

1. Institute of Microbiology Laboratory, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, China.

2. Shanghai Academy of Preventive Medicine, Shanghai, China.

^& Joint first authors.

^# Corresponding author: Yanqiu Zhou, zhouyanqiu@scdc.sh.cn.

In recent years, mpox virus Clade Ib has emerged as a significant global public health threat due to its rapid transmission and potential for severe disease outcomes. This strain was first identified in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in September 2023 and began spreading to neighboring African countries by July 2024. It was subsequently imported through international travel to 12 non-African countries across Asia, Europe, and the Americas. Clade Ib exhibits increased transmissibility, and current data suggest that infections may lead to more severe symptoms, with higher risks of severe illness and mortality, particularly among vulnerable populations such as children, pregnant individuals, and immunocompromised groups (e.g., people living with HIV/AIDS). Epidemiologically, Clade Ib primarily spreads through sexual contact, close household contact, and healthcare-related exposure. This review aims to provide an overview of the current understanding of mpox virus Clade Ib, including its genetic characteristics, epidemiological patterns, and prevention and control strategies. Additionally, it discusses the strategies and interventions needed to address this emerging threat.

猴痘病毒Ib分支：我们要如何应对？

艾琳^1,&；崔心怡^2,&；周艳秋^1,#

1. 病毒检测实验室，上海市疾病预防控制中心，上海，中国；

2. 上海市预防医学科学院，上海，中国。

^& 共同第一作者。

^# 通讯作者: 周艳秋，zhouyanqiu@scdc.sh.cn。

近年来，猴痘病毒Ⅰb分支因其快速传播和潜在的高重症风险，已成为全球公共卫生的重要威胁。该毒株于2023年9月在刚果（金）首次被发现，2024年7月起逐渐扩散至非洲周边国家，并通过国际旅行输入至亚洲、欧洲和美洲等12个非洲以外国家。Ⅰb分支的传染性增强，且现有数据显示其感染后症状可能更严重，重症和死亡风险更高，尤其对儿童、孕妇及免疫功能低下人群（如艾滋病患者）威胁显著。流行病学特征显示，Ⅰb分支主要通过性接触、家庭密切接触及医疗暴露传播。本综述旨在概述当前对猴痘病毒Ib分支的理解，包括其遗传特征、流行病学模式以及预防和控制策略，并讨论了应对这一新兴威胁的策略和干预措施。

For more information: https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi/10.46234/ccdcw2025.165