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Entering the first winter after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) no longer a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), an increase in acute respiratory infections caused by multiple respiratory pathogens resulted in increased hospitalizations. This rise in respiratory infections, particularly delayed pediatric Mycoplasma pneumoniae (M. pneumoniae), among specific age groups differed from typical seasonal patterns (1). These changes may be due to the immunity gap developed during the COVID-19 pandemic (2). This study investigated the current epidemiological trends of respiratory pathogens in Beijing, with a specific focus on pathogen composition. The findings, combined with global health recommendations, can offer valuable insights for addressing the ongoing challenges posed by respiratory infections in the future.
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Between November 2023 and April 2024, a total of 1,513 samples were collected from patients with respiratory tract infections from 2 sentinel hospitals (1,437) and surrounding communities (76) in Beijing. Of these samples, 770 were from male patients, and 743 were from female patients, resulting in a male-to-female ratio of 1.04:1.00. The positive rate for both males and females (χ2=0.84, P=0.40), as well as for hospital and community settings (χ2=3.53, P=0.06), did not show a significant difference. Additionally, there were 158 cases in children (<18 years old) and 1,355 cases in adults (≥18 years old), with a median age of 32 years. Among the collected samples, 787 (52.02%) tested positive for viruses. This included 429 cases (28.35%) of influenza virus infections, with 237 cases (55.24%) of IBV, 190 cases (44.29%) of IAV, and 2 cases (0.47%) of ICV. There were also 150 cases (9.91%) of SARS-CoV-2, 102 cases (6.74%) of HBoV, 72 cases (4.76%) of RSV, 42 cases (2.78%) of ADV, 20 cases (1.32%) of HMPV, and 13 cases (0.86%) of HRV infections. Regarding bacterial infections in patients with fever, 565 cases (37.34%) tested positive for bacteria. The highest detection rate was for H. influenzae, accounting for 15.07% of cases. The positive rates for other bacteria are shown in Table 1.
Pathogen type Pathogen name Wave 2 (%) Wave 3 (%) Sum (%) Viruses SARS-CoV-2 42 (5.41) 35 (6.36) 77 (5.81) Influenza A virus 170 (21.91) 19 (3.45) 189 (14.25) Influenza B virus 27 (3.48) 191 (34.73) 218 (16.44) Influenza C virus 1 (0.13) 1 (0.18) 2 (0.15) Influenza D virus 0 0 0 Human bocavirus 49 (6.31) 47 (8.55) 96 (7.24) Human metapneumovirus 5 (0.64) 11 (2.00) 16 (1.21) Respiratory syncytial virus 36 (4.64) 29 (5.27) 65 (4.90) Adenovirus 22 (2.84) 15 (2.73) 37 (2.79) Human rhinovirus 10 (1.29) 1 (0.18) 11 (0.83) Human parainfluenza virus I 22 (2.84) 48 (8.73) 70 (5.28) Human parainfluenza virus II 0 0 0 Human parainfluenza virus III 4 (0.52) 2 (0.36) 6 (0.45) Human parainfluenza virus IV 7 (0.90) 0 7 (0.53) Human coronavirus NL63 0 0 0 Human coronavirus 229E 10 (1.29) 0 10 (0.75) Human coronavirus OC43 2 (0.26) 0 2 (0.15) Human coronavirus HKU1 1 (0.13) 0 1 (0.08) Bacterial Klebsiella pneumoniae 67 (8.63) 32 (5.82) 99 (7.45) Streptococcus pneumoniae 65 (8.38) 31 (5.64) 96 (7.24) Staphylococcus aureus 50 (6.44) 13 (2.36) 63 (4.75) Legionella pneumophilia 1 (0.13) 0 1 (0.08) Haemophilus influenzae 123 (15.85) 71 (12.91) 194 (14.63) Pseudomonas aeruginosa 50 (6.44) 27 (4.91) 77 (5.81) Acinetobacter baumannii 53 (6.83) 16 (2.91) 69 (5.20) Moraxella catarrhalis 19 (2.45) 6 (1.09) 25 (1.89) Mycoplasma pneumoniae 25 (3.22) 8 (1.45) 33 (2.49) Note: Wave 2 spans from October 10 to December 25, 2023, while Wave 3 extends from December 25, 2023 to February 10, 2024.
Abbreviation: SARS-CoV-2=severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; qPCR=quantitative polymerase chain reaction.Table 1. The number of positive cases and the percentage of 27 respiratory pathogens identified by qPCR in outpatients.
Based on prevalence trends of dominant pathogens, this period can be divided into four epidemic waves: the pre-winter M. pneumoniae outbreak with declining SARS-CoV-2 prevalence (Wave 1), followed by the emergence of the IAV epidemic from October to the end of December 2023 (Wave 2), in which the 5.41% detection rate of SARS-CoV-2 was lower than during the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast to the pathogen prevalence at the end of 2023, the detection rate of IBV increased rapidly and became the dominant pathogen in early 2024 (Wave 3), reaching 34.73%, and then gradually decreased in early February. By mid-February 2024, SARS-CoV-2 infections began to rise, reaching a peak detection rate of 39.04% in mid-March, then gradually decreasing in April, with the number of outpatients with respiratory diseases decreasing significantly (Wave 4, Figure 1). These four waves, each with a different dominant pathogen, highlight the dynamic nature of pathogen prevalence and emphasize the importance of continuous monitoring.
Figure 1.Epidemic trend of each pathogen detected by qPCR (November 2023 to April 2024).
Note: This graph depicts the epidemic trend of various pathogens detected by qPCR from November 2023 to April 2024. Each colorful trajectory represents a different pathogen, with the trends reflecting changes in their detected levels over time. The graph's mirrored layout, with an axis on 25 December, facilitates a comparison of trends in Wave 2 and Wave 3. In the upper right, the bar graph details the distribution of detection count for each pathogen during the study period.
Abbreviation: SARS-CoV-2=severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; qPCR=quantitative polymerase chain reaction.
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Of the 1,513 cases of respiratory pathogen infection, 284 (18.77%) were co-infected with more than two respiratory pathogens. Among these, H. influenzae was frequently co-infected with other viral and bacterial pathogens (66 cases, 4.36%), followed by IBV (64 cases, 4.23%) and IAV (40 cases, 2.64%). Notably, 18 cases (1.19%) were co-infected by two viruses, including 13 cases of IAV/IBV and HBoV and 5 cases of HBoV and HPIV-I (Figure 2). Correlation analysis revealed potential interactions and impact patterns among these pathogens (Figure 3). A significant negative correlation was found between SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses, particularly IBV (P<0.0001). H. influenzae was more likely to co-infect with other pediatric-prevalent pathogens, such as ADV (P<0.05), HMPV (P<0.05), and HRV (P<0.0001), but exhibited a significant negative correlation with SARS-CoV-2 (P<0.0001). Additionally, M. catarrhalis showed positive correlations with coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2 (P<0.0001) and HCoV-229E (P<0.0001). Furthermore, HBoV and HPIV-I showed a significant positive correlation. Interestingly, influenza A and B viruses had a relatively low likelihood of co-infection with other respiratory viruses.
Figure 2.Overview of single and co-infections with different pathogens in Beijing (November 2023 to April 2024).
Note: The figure illustrates the co-infection patterns of various pathogens. The horizontal bars represent the total number of infections for each pathogen. The vertical bars display the distribution of infections observed, including both single infections (each circle) and co-infections (linked circles). Only co-infections involving at least five cases are shown.
Abbreviation: SARS-CoV-2=severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.
Figure 3.Co-infection and correlation among different pathogens in Beijing (November 2023-April 2024).
Note: The heatmap depicts the co-infection and correlation patterns among various pathogens. The color intensity in each cell represents the correlation coefficient between pairs of pathogens: red for positive correlation and blue for negative correlation, with darker shades indicating stronger relationships. The presence of asterisks within the cells denotes statistical significance.
Abbreviation: SARS-CoV-2=severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.
* P<0.05;
** P<0.01;
*** P<0.001;
**** P<0.0001.
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The nonlinear relationship between respiratory pathogens and outpatient age was modeled and visualized using RCS. This analysis revealed a significant nonlinear relationship between age and pathogen occurrence risk, with particularly pronounced changes in hazard ratios (HR) observed at certain age intervals (Figure 4). Generally, the infection risk profiles of SARS-CoV-2 (Figure 4A), IAV (Figure 4B), and IBV (Figure 4C) exhibited a similar pattern. Susceptibility gradually increased in patients under 30 years old, peaked in the 30–40-year age group, and then decreased. However, unlike SARS-CoV-2 and IAV, which mainly infected middle-aged and elderly individuals, IBV primarily infected middle-aged individuals, with the infection risk rapidly declining after 40 years old. In contrast, H. influenzae (Figure 4H) showed increased susceptibility among adolescents, with a substantial risk decrease as age advanced, ultimately stabilizing. HBoV (Figure 4E), RSV (Figure 4F), A. baumannii (Figure 4I), P. aeruginosa (Figure 4J), K. pneumoniae (Figure 4K), and S. aureus (Figure 4L) exhibited a U-shaped relationship with age. Among individuals under 30 years old, the risk of infection with these pathogens declined with advancing age, reaching the lowest risk among teenagers and young adults but increasing thereafter with further aging, demonstrating an elevated susceptibility trend among the elderly population. For S. pneumoniae (Figure 4G) and other pathogens, the lack of significant nonlinear age-related patterns could be attributable to insufficient statistical power due to sample size limitations or an inherent lack of strong age-dependent susceptibility patterns for these pathogens in the study population.
Figure 4.Association of respiratory pathogens and the age of outpatients.
Note: The graphs present the nonlinear association analysis between pathogens (counts>50) and age, modeled using the RCS method. Solid lines represent the HRs of the influence of age on the occurrence of pathogens, while the shaded areas indicate 95% CIs. Knot locations are automatically selected based on the quantiles of age distribution to reveal the nonlinear trend of pathogen risk with age. Additionally, the P-values for overall association and nonlinearity are provided for interpretation.
Abbreviation: SARS-CoV-2=severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; RCS=restricted cubic spline; HR=hazard ratio; CI=confidence interval.
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Epidemic Characteristics of the Respiratory Pathogens
Co-infection Patterns of the Respiratory Pathogens
Age Distribution of the Respiratory Pathogens
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