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2023 Vol. 5, No. 5

Preplanned Studies
Risk Factors Associated with the Spatiotemporal Spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 Variant — Shanghai Municipality, China, 2022
Wen Zheng, Xiaowei Deng, Cheng Peng, Xuemei Yan, Nan Zheng, Zhiyuan Chen, Juan Yang, Marco Ajelli, Juanjuan Zhang, Hongjie Yu
2023, 5(5): 97-102. doi: 10.46234/ccdcw2023.018
Abstract(3702) HTML (189) PDF 2863KB(37)
Abstract:
What is already known about this topic?

Previous studies have explored the spatial transmission patterns of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and have assessed the associated risk factors. However, none of these studies have quantitatively described the spatiotemporal transmission patterns and risk factors for Omicron BA.2 at the micro (within-city) scale.

What is added by this report?

This study highlights the heterogeneous spread of the 2022 Omicron BA.2 epidemic in Shanghai, and identifies associations between different metrics of spatial spread at the subdistrict level and demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, human mobility patterns, and adopted interventions.

What are the implications for public health practice?

Disentangling different risk factors might contribute to a deeper understanding of the transmission dynamics and ecology of coronavirus disease 2019 and an effective design of monitoring and management strategies.

Modeling the Prediction on the Efficacy of a Homologous Third Dose of CoronaVac Against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.12.1, and BA.4/5 — China, 2020–2021
Xinhua Chen, Xufang Bai, Xinghui Chen, Nan Zheng, Juan Yang, Juanjuan Zhang, Hongjie Yu
2023, 5(5): 103-107. doi: 10.46234/ccdcw2023.019
Abstract(4063) HTML (163) PDF 687KB(20)
Abstract:
What is already known about this topic?

Previous studies have reported vaccine efficacy or effectiveness against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron subvariants for several vaccine platforms. However, there are currently few data on estimates of inactivated platform coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines, especially against the globally dominant subvariant — Omicron BA.5.

What is added by this report?

The study predicts vaccine efficacy against four Omicron subvariants — Omicron BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.12.1, and BA.4/5 — after vaccination with a homologous third dose of CoronaVac across clinical endpoints and age groups.

What are the implications for public health practice?

The results suggest that CoronaVac-elicited immunity may not provide adequate protection against Omicron subvariants after the homologous third dose, and a heterologous booster and Omicron-specific vaccination may be alternative strategies.

A Retrospective Modeling Study of the Targeted Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions During the Xinfadi Outbreak in the Early Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic — Beijing, China, 2020
Yan Wang, Kaiyuan Sun, Yang Pan, Lan Yi, Da Huo, Yanpeng Wu, Shuaibing Dong, Jinxin Guo, Xiangfeng Dou, Wei Wang, Shuangsheng Wu, Xufang Bai, Hongjie Yu, Quanyi Wang
2023, 5(5): 108-112. doi: 10.46234/ccdcw2023.020
Abstract(3141) HTML (229) PDF 1521KB(14)
Abstract:
What is already known about this topic?

China has repeatedly contained multiple severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreaks through a comprehensive set of targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, the effectiveness of such NPIs has not been systematically assessed.

What is added by this report?

A multilayer deployment of case isolation, contact tracing, targeted community lockdowns, and mobility restrictions could potentially contain outbreaks caused by the SARS-CoV-2 ancestral strain, without the requirement of city-wide lockdowns. Mass testing could further aid in the efficacy and speed of containment.

What are the implications for public health practice?

Pursuing containment in a timely fashion at the beginning of the pandemic, before the virus had the opportunity to spread and undergo extensive adaptive evolution, could help in averting an overall pandemic disease burden and be socioeconomically cost-effective.

Methods and Applications
Estimating Changes in Contact Patterns in China Over the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Implications for SARS-CoV-2 Spread — Four Cities, China, 2020
Yuxia Liang, Cheng Peng, Qian You, Maria Litvinova, Marco Ajelli, Juanjuan Zhang, Hongjie Yu
2023, 5(5): 113-118. doi: 10.46234/ccdcw2023.021
Abstract(4984) HTML (208) PDF 1015KB(15)
Abstract:
Introduction

Previous studies have demonstrated significant changes in social contacts during the first-wave coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Chinese mainland. The purpose of this study was to quantify the time-varying contact patterns by age in Chinese mainland in 2020 and evaluate their impact on the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

Methods

Diary-based contact surveys were performed for four periods: baseline (prior to 2020), outbreak (February 2020), post-lockdown (March–May 2020), and post-epidemic (September–November 2020). We built a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to evaluate the effect of reducing contacts on transmission.

Results

During the post-epidemic period, daily contacts resumed to 26.7%, 14.8%, 46.8%, and 44.2% of the pre-COVID levels in Wuhan, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Changsha, respectively. This suggests a moderate risk of resurgence in Changsha, Shenzhen, and Wuhan, and a low risk in Shanghai. School closure alone was not enough to interrupt transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5, but with the addition of a 75% reduction of contacts at the workplace, it could lead to a 16.8% reduction of the attack rate. To control an outbreak, concerted strategies that target schools, workplaces, and community contacts are needed.

Discussion

Monitoring contact patterns by age is key to quantifying the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks and evaluating the impact of intervention strategies.